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SV Wehen vs SpVgg Greuther Furth — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
2/21/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 23BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen36%
×Draw24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.44
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.68

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

SpVgg Greuther Furth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
60%
SV Wehen or SpVgg Greuther Furth
76%
Draw or SpVgg Greuther Furth
64%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
17%
SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
76%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
42%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
18%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
78%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
45%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
47%
SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.68 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.25 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Wehen scores more
36%
level
24%
SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
40%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Furth

SV Wehen and SpVgg Greuther Furth drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 21, 2020.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.