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SpVgg Greuther Furth vs SV Wehen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SpVgg Greuther Furth
SpVgg Greuther Furth
FT
2 – 2
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
8/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sportzentrum Kleeblatt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

SpVgg Greuther Furth49%
×Draw23%
SV Wehen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.85
SV Wehen
1.34

SpVgg Greuther Furth creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

creates per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.83
SV Wehen
1.43

allows per match

SpVgg Greuther Furth
1.25
SV Wehen
1.86

finishing

SpVgg Greuther Furth+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SpVgg Greuther Furth ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SpVgg Greuther Furth or draw
72%
SpVgg Greuther Furth or SV Wehen
77%
Draw or SV Wehen
51%

Winning margin

SpVgg Greuther Furth wins by 2+
27%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SpVgg Greuther Furth 1+ goals
84%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 2+ goals
55%
SpVgg Greuther Furth 3+ goals
28%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
74%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
39%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SpVgg Greuther Furth (draw refunded)
64%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SpVgg Greuther Furth at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SpVgg Greuther Furth attack 1.83 + SV Wehen defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

SV Wehen attack 1.43 + SpVgg Greuther Furth defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SpVgg Greuther Furth scores more
49%
level
23%
SV Wehen scores more
28%

SpVgg Greuther Furth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SpVgg Greuther Furth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: SpVgg Greuther Furth 2–2 SV Wehen

SpVgg Greuther Furth and SV Wehen drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on August 8, 2020.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Kleeblatt in Fürth.