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SV Wehen vs SC Paderborn 07 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
2/23/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 23BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen30%
×Draw24%
SC Paderborn 0746%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.27
SC Paderborn 07
1.65

SC Paderborn 07 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 120 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
SC Paderborn 07
1.48

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
SC Paderborn 07
1.35

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
54%
SV Wehen or SC Paderborn 07
76%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
70%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
12%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
72%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
36%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
14%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
81%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
49%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
39%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SV Wehen scores more
30%
level
24%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
46%

SC Paderborn 07 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 1–2 SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Wehen 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.