SC Paderborn 07 2–1 SV Wehen: Result & Stats

SC Paderborn 07

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SV Wehen

9/15/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 6Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SC Paderborn 0748%

×Draw23%

SV Wehen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC Paderborn 07Expected goals in this matchSV Wehen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.36

SC Paderborn 07

1.79

SV Wehen

1.36

SC Paderborn 07 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 36 away

2.04

creates per match

1.31

1.41

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07

2.04

SV Wehen

1.31

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07

1.41

SV Wehen

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

SV Wehen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw

71%

SC Paderborn 07 or SV Wehen

77%

Draw or SV Wehen

52%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+

26%

SV Wehen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals

83%

SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals

53%

SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals

26%

SV Wehen 1+ goals

74%

SV Wehen 2+ goals

39%

SV Wehen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)

62%

SV Wehen (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.79

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more

48%

level

23%

SV Wehen scores more

29%

SC Paderborn 07 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff