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SV Wehen vs Jahn Regensburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jahn Regensburg
Jahn Regensburg
I. Prtajin 81'
K. Faber 47'
D. Kother 45+2'
5/28/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Relegation RoundBRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SV Wehen40%
×Draw24%
Jahn Regensburg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.59
Jahn Regensburg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.23
Jahn Regensburg
1.16

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.83
Jahn Regensburg
1.95

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Jahn Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
64%
SV Wehen or Jahn Regensburg
76%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg
60%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
20%
Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
80%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
47%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
21%
Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
78%
Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
44%
Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
53%
Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.23 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + SV Wehen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Wehen scores more
40%
level
24%
Jahn Regensburg scores more
36%

SV Wehen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
I. PrtajinSV WehenSV Wehen · F
8.3

Match Events

16'
Sascha Mockenhaupt
41'
Dominik Kother
45+2'
D. Kother↳ K. Faber
47'
K. Faber
48'
Aleksandar Vukotić
55'
K. Bennetts← L. Günther
68'
Oscar Schönfelder
69'
A. Ćatić← T. Goppel
69'
N. Agrafiotis← F. Kovačević
75'
M. Angha← S. Mockenhaupt
75'
N. Bätzner← Lee Hyun-Ju
81'
I. Prtajin↳ A. Ćatić
82'
J. Bauer← D. Kother
83'
Nikolas Agrafiotis
87'
A. Bittroff← F. Ballas
89'
Gino Fechner
90+7'
B. Hein← N. Ganaus

Possession

70%SV

Shots

19SV

Pass accuracy

61%SV

Statistics

SVJahn
Overview
70%Possession30%
19Total Shots11
7Corners1
10Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots11
6On Target4
8Off Target5
5Blocked2
15Inside Box8
4Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
551Total Passes244
434Accurate Passes125
79%Pass Accuracy51%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls10
4Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 1–2 Jahn Regensburg

Jahn Regensburg beat SV Wehen 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Kother (45+2'), K. Faber (47'), I. Prtajin (81').

SV Wehen controlled possession (70%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.