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SV Wehen vs Jahn Regensburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Jahn Regensburg
Jahn Regensburg
J. George 84'
M. Grüttner 76', 60', 34'
M. Kuhn 42' (OG)
8/31/20192. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 5BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

SV Wehen40%
×Draw24%
Jahn Regensburg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.59
Jahn Regensburg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.23
Jahn Regensburg
1.16

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.83
Jahn Regensburg
1.95

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Jahn Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Jahn Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
64%
SV Wehen or Jahn Regensburg
76%
Draw or Jahn Regensburg
60%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
20%
Jahn Regensburg wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
80%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
47%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
21%
Jahn Regensburg 1+ goals
78%
Jahn Regensburg 2+ goals
44%
Jahn Regensburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
53%
Jahn Regensburg (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

Jahn Regensburg away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.95 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.23 + Jahn Regensburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.59

Jahn Regensburg attack 1.16 + SV Wehen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Wehen scores more
40%
level
24%
Jahn Regensburg scores more
36%

SV Wehen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
M. GrüttnerJahn RegensburgJahn Regensburg · F
9.5

Match Events

34'
M. Grüttner↳ E. Wekesser
42'
M. KuhnOwn goal
46'
T. Knöll← N. Shipnoski
46'
D. Kyereh← M. Dittgen
60'
M. Grüttner↳ J. George
62'
A. Albers← E. Wekesser
76'
M. Grüttner↳ S. Stolze
80'
Paterson Chato Nguendong
80'
B. Gimber← M. Correia
83'
F. Heister← S. Stolze
84'
J. George↳ A. Geipl

Possession

45%SV

Shots

11SV

Pass accuracy

46%SV

Statistics

SVJahn
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots14
7Corners5
12Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots14
2On Target9
6Off Target4
3Blocked1
10Inside Box11
1Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
329Total Passes395
204Accurate Passes289
62%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides5

Match Recap: SV Wehen vs Jahn Regensburg

Jahn Regensburg beat SV Wehen 5-0 in 2. Bundesliga on August 31, 2019.

Goals: M. Grüttner (34', 60', 76'), M. Kuhn (42' o.g.), J. George (84').

Jahn Regensburg controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.