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SV Wehen vs Hamburger SV — DFB Pokal 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
10/30/2018DFB PokalDFB Pokal · 2nd RoundBrita Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

SV Wehen20%
×Draw19%
Hamburger SV61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.33
Hamburger SV
2.42

Hamburger SV creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.00
Hamburger SV
2.44

allows per match

SV Wehen
2.40
Hamburger SV
1.67

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Hamburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Hamburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
39%
SV Wehen or Hamburger SV
81%
Draw or Hamburger SV
80%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
8%
Hamburger SV wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
74%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
38%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
15%
Hamburger SV 1+ goals
91%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
69%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
25%
Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Hamburger SV away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.00 + Hamburger SV defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hamburger SV attack 2.44 + SV Wehen defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

SV Wehen scores more
20%
level
19%
Hamburger SV scores more
61%

Hamburger SV at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

DFB Pokal: SV Wehen 0–3 Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV beat SV Wehen 3-0 in DFB Pokal on October 30, 2018.

The match was played at Brita Arena in Wiesbaden.