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Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
5/31/20202. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 29Volksparkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Hamburger SV51%
×Draw23%
SV Wehen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamburger SV
1.81
SV Wehen
1.22

Hamburger SV creates 48% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 36 away

creates per match

Hamburger SV
2.10
SV Wehen
1.31

allows per match

Hamburger SV
1.13
SV Wehen
1.53

finishing

Hamburger SV+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hamburger SV or draw
74%
Hamburger SV or SV Wehen
77%
Draw or SV Wehen
49%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV wins by 2+
28%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hamburger SV 1+ goals
84%
Hamburger SV 2+ goals
54%
Hamburger SV 3+ goals
27%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
70%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
34%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV (draw refunded)
66%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV attack 2.10 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + Hamburger SV defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hamburger SV scores more
51%
level
23%
SV Wehen scores more
26%

Hamburger SV at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hamburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen

Hamburger SV beat SV Wehen 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on May 31, 2020.

The match was played at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.