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SV Wehen vs FC Nurnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Nurnberg
FC Nurnberg
2/9/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 21BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen36%
×Draw24%
FC Nurnberg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.49
FC Nurnberg
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 121 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
FC Nurnberg
1.38

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
FC Nurnberg
1.79

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

FC Nurnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
60%
SV Wehen or FC Nurnberg
76%
Draw or FC Nurnberg
64%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
17%
FC Nurnberg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
77%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
44%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
19%
FC Nurnberg 1+ goals
80%
FC Nurnberg 2+ goals
47%
FC Nurnberg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
47%
FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

FC Nurnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.49

FC Nurnberg attack 1.38 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Wehen scores more
36%
level
24%
FC Nurnberg scores more
40%

FC Nurnberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 1–1 FC Nurnberg

SV Wehen and FC Nurnberg drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.