FC Nurnberg 0–2 SV Wehen: Result & Stats

FC Nurnberg

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SV Wehen

11/30/2019

2. Bundesliga · Round 15Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FC Nurnberg40%

×Draw25%

SV Wehen35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC NurnbergExpected goals in this matchSV Wehen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.34

FC Nurnberg

1.44

SV Wehen

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 36 away

1.35

creates per match

1.31

1.38

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FC Nurnberg

1.35

SV Wehen

1.31

allows per match

FC Nurnberg

1.38

SV Wehen

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Nurnberg+0.00on par

SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Nurnberg ↓

SV Wehen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Nurnberg or draw

65%

FC Nurnberg or SV Wehen

75%

Draw or SV Wehen

60%

Winning margin

FC Nurnberg wins by 2+

19%

SV Wehen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Nurnberg 1+ goals

76%

FC Nurnberg 2+ goals

42%

FC Nurnberg 3+ goals

18%

SV Wehen 1+ goals

74%

SV Wehen 2+ goals

39%

SV Wehen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Nurnberg (draw refunded)

53%

SV Wehen (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Nurnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Nurnberg attack 1.35 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + FC Nurnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Nurnberg scores more

40%

level

25%

SV Wehen scores more

35%

FC Nurnberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Nurnberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff