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SV Wehen vs Eintracht Braunschweig — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Wehen
SV Wehen
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
12/8/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16BRITA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

SV Wehen42%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Braunschweig33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wehen
1.59
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.38

SV Wehen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 87 away

creates per match

SV Wehen
1.19
Eintracht Braunschweig
0.94

allows per match

SV Wehen
1.81
Eintracht Braunschweig
1.99

finishing

SV Wehen+0.00on par
Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wehen ↓

Eintracht Braunschweig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

SV Wehen or draw
67%
SV Wehen or Eintracht Braunschweig
76%
Draw or Eintracht Braunschweig
58%

Winning margin

SV Wehen wins by 2+
21%
Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SV Wehen 1+ goals
80%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
47%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
21%
Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

SV Wehen (draw refunded)
56%
Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wehen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

Eintracht Braunschweig away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.99 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wehen attack 1.19 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.59

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 + SV Wehen defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SV Wehen scores more
42%
level
24%
Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
33%

SV Wehen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SV Wehen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Wehen 1–3 Eintracht Braunschweig

Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Wehen 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at BRITA-Arena in Wiesbaden.