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Eintracht Braunschweig vs SV Wehen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Eintracht Braunschweig
Eintracht Braunschweig
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
SV Wehen
SV Wehen
5/12/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 33Eintracht-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Eintracht Braunschweig38%
×Draw26%
SV Wehen37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.37
SV Wehen
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 36 away

creates per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.21
SV Wehen
1.31

allows per match

Eintracht Braunschweig
1.39
SV Wehen
1.53

finishing

Eintracht Braunschweig+0.00on par
SV Wehen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunschweig ↓

SV Wehen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunschweig or draw
63%
Eintracht Braunschweig or SV Wehen
74%
Draw or SV Wehen
62%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunschweig wins by 2+
17%
SV Wehen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunschweig 1+ goals
75%
Eintracht Braunschweig 2+ goals
40%
Eintracht Braunschweig 3+ goals
16%
SV Wehen 1+ goals
74%
SV Wehen 2+ goals
39%
SV Wehen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunschweig (draw refunded)
51%
SV Wehen (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunschweig at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.39 · 85 matches

SV Wehen away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunschweig attack 1.21 + SV Wehen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

SV Wehen attack 1.31 + Eintracht Braunschweig defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Eintracht Braunschweig scores more
38%
level
26%
SV Wehen scores more
37%

Eintracht Braunschweig at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Eintracht Braunschweig will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 SV Wehen

Eintracht Braunschweig beat SV Wehen 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Eintracht-Stadion in Braunschweig.