SV Wallern 7–4 Pöttinger Grieskirchen

SV Wallern

FT

7 – 4

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

4/29/2022

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 24Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

SV Wallern66%

×Draw17%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV WallernExpected goals in this matchPöttinger Grieskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.68

1.31

SV Wallern

2.68

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.31

SV Wallern creates 105% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

3.09

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

2.28

creates per match

SV Wallern

3.09

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

1.28

allows per match

SV Wallern

1.34

Pöttinger Grieskirchen

2.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Pöttinger Grieskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw

83%

SV Wallern or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

83%

Draw or Pöttinger Grieskirchen

34%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+

45%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals

93%

SV Wallern 2+ goals

74%

SV Wallern 3+ goals

49%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals

73%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals

38%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)

80%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.68

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.28 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

SV Wallern scores more

66%

level

17%

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more

17%

SV Wallern at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff