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Pöttinger Grieskirchen vs SV Wallern — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
FT
3 – 2
SV Wallern
SV Wallern
10/10/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 10Fröling-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Pöttinger Grieskirchen31%
×Draw22%
SV Wallern47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.62
SV Wallern
2.02

SV Wallern creates 25% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
1.61
SV Wallern
1.91

allows per match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen
2.14
SV Wallern
1.63

finishing

Pöttinger Grieskirchen+0.00on par
SV Wallern+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pöttinger Grieskirchen ↓

SV Wallern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pöttinger Grieskirchen or draw
53%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen or SV Wallern
78%
Draw or SV Wallern
69%

Winning margin

Pöttinger Grieskirchen wins by 2+
15%
SV Wallern wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Pöttinger Grieskirchen 1+ goals
80%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 2+ goals
48%
Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3+ goals
22%
SV Wallern 1+ goals
87%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
60%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Pöttinger Grieskirchen (draw refunded)
40%
SV Wallern (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pöttinger Grieskirchen at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.14 · 28 matches

SV Wallern away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pöttinger Grieskirchen attack 1.61 + SV Wallern defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.62

SV Wallern attack 1.91 + Pöttinger Grieskirchen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Pöttinger Grieskirchen scores more
31%
level
22%
SV Wallern scores more
47%

SV Wallern at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Pöttinger Grieskirchen 3–2 SV Wallern

Pöttinger Grieskirchen beat SV Wallern 3-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on October 10, 2020.

The match was played at Fröling-Stadion in Grieskirchen.