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SV Wallern vs Bad Schallerbach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

SV Wallern
SV Wallern
CANC
00:00
Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
4/4/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 20Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

SV Wallern60%
×Draw19%
Bad Schallerbach21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Wallern
2.46
Bad Schallerbach
1.41

SV Wallern creates 74% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 75 away

creates per match

SV Wallern
3.09
Bad Schallerbach
1.48

allows per match

SV Wallern
1.34
Bad Schallerbach
1.83

finishing

SV Wallern+0.00on par
Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Wallern ↓

Bad Schallerbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SV Wallern or draw
79%
SV Wallern or Bad Schallerbach
81%
Draw or Bad Schallerbach
40%

Winning margin

SV Wallern wins by 2+
39%
Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SV Wallern 1+ goals
91%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
70%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
44%
Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
76%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
41%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SV Wallern (draw refunded)
74%
Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Wallern at home — creates 3.09, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

Bad Schallerbach away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.83 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Wallern attack 3.09 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.46

Bad Schallerbach attack 1.48 + SV Wallern defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SV Wallern scores more
60%
level
19%
Bad Schallerbach scores more
21%

SV Wallern at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SV Wallern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SV Wallern host Bad Schallerbach

April 4, 2020: SV Wallern take on Bad Schallerbach in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SV Wallern host Bad Schallerbach at Sportplatz SV Zaunergroup Wallern.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.