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Bad Schallerbach vs SV Wallern — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Bad Schallerbach
Bad Schallerbach
FT
1 – 2
SV Wallern
SV Wallern
4/8/2022Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 21Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bad Schallerbach44%
×Draw22%
SV Wallern34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Schallerbach
1.89
SV Wallern
1.66

Bad Schallerbach creates 14% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 43 away

creates per match

Bad Schallerbach
2.15
SV Wallern
1.91

allows per match

Bad Schallerbach
1.41
SV Wallern
1.63

finishing

Bad Schallerbach+0.00on par
SV Wallern+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Schallerbach ↓

SV Wallern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bad Schallerbach or draw
66%
Bad Schallerbach or SV Wallern
78%
Draw or SV Wallern
56%

Winning margin

Bad Schallerbach wins by 2+
24%
SV Wallern wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bad Schallerbach 1+ goals
85%
Bad Schallerbach 2+ goals
56%
Bad Schallerbach 3+ goals
29%
SV Wallern 1+ goals
81%
SV Wallern 2+ goals
49%
SV Wallern 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bad Schallerbach (draw refunded)
56%
SV Wallern (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Schallerbach at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

SV Wallern away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.63 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Schallerbach attack 2.15 + SV Wallern defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.89

SV Wallern attack 1.91 + Bad Schallerbach defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bad Schallerbach scores more
44%
level
22%
SV Wallern scores more
34%

Bad Schallerbach at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bad Schallerbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Bad Schallerbach 1–2 SV Wallern

SV Wallern beat Bad Schallerbach 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Sedda Bad Schallerbach in Bad Schallerbach.