SV Steinbach 2–1 Hanau 93: Result & Stats

SV Steinbach

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hanau 93

2/15/2025

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 24Kunstrasenplatz Eiterfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

SV Steinbach40%

×Draw22%

Hanau 9337%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV SteinbachExpected goals in this matchHanau 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.69

SV Steinbach

1.77

Hanau 93

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 92 away

1.33

creates per match

1.48

1.89

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

SV Steinbach

1.33

Hanau 93

1.48

allows per match

SV Steinbach

1.89

Hanau 93

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Steinbach+0.00on par

Hanau 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Steinbach ↓

Hanau 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SV Steinbach or draw

63%

SV Steinbach or Hanau 93

78%

Draw or Hanau 93

60%

Winning margin

SV Steinbach wins by 2+

21%

Hanau 93 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

SV Steinbach 1+ goals

83%

SV Steinbach 2+ goals

53%

SV Steinbach 3+ goals

26%

Hanau 93 1+ goals

82%

Hanau 93 2+ goals

50%

Hanau 93 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SV Steinbach (draw refunded)

52%

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Steinbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.89 · 76 matches

Hanau 93 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Steinbach attack 1.33 + Hanau 93 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hanau 93 attack 1.48 + SV Steinbach defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SV Steinbach scores more

40%

level

22%

Hanau 93 scores more

37%

SV Steinbach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff