Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hanau 93 vs SV Steinbach — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hanau 93
Hanau 93
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SV Steinbach
SV Steinbach
3/9/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 23Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Hanau 9346%
×Draw22%
SV Steinbach32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hanau 93
1.91
SV Steinbach
1.55

Hanau 93 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 76 away

creates per match

Hanau 93
1.77
SV Steinbach
1.39

allows per match

Hanau 93
1.71
SV Steinbach
2.05

finishing

Hanau 93+0.00on par
SV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hanau 93 ↓

SV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hanau 93 or draw
68%
Hanau 93 or SV Steinbach
78%
Draw or SV Steinbach
54%

Winning margin

Hanau 93 wins by 2+
26%
SV Steinbach wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hanau 93 1+ goals
85%
Hanau 93 2+ goals
57%
Hanau 93 3+ goals
30%
SV Steinbach 1+ goals
79%
SV Steinbach 2+ goals
46%
SV Steinbach 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hanau 93 (draw refunded)
59%
SV Steinbach (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hanau 93 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 91 matches

SV Steinbach away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.05 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hanau 93 attack 1.77 + SV Steinbach defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.91

SV Steinbach attack 1.39 + Hanau 93 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hanau 93 scores more
46%
level
22%
SV Steinbach scores more
32%

Hanau 93 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hanau 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hanau 93 1–1 SV Steinbach

Hanau 93 and SV Steinbach drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz an der Kastanienallee in Hanau.