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SV Schwarzach vs Bergheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

SV Schwarzach
SV Schwarzach
FT
2 – 5
Bergheim
Bergheim
6/3/2023Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 25Sportplatz Schwarzach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Schwarzach52%
×Draw20%
Bergheim28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Schwarzach
2.32
Bergheim
1.70

SV Schwarzach creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 37 away

creates per match

SV Schwarzach
1.89
Bergheim
1.57

allows per match

SV Schwarzach
1.82
Bergheim
2.76

finishing

SV Schwarzach+0.00on par
Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Schwarzach ↓

Bergheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

SV Schwarzach or draw
72%
SV Schwarzach or Bergheim
80%
Draw or Bergheim
48%

Winning margin

SV Schwarzach wins by 2+
31%
Bergheim wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SV Schwarzach 1+ goals
90%
SV Schwarzach 2+ goals
67%
SV Schwarzach 3+ goals
40%
Bergheim 1+ goals
82%
Bergheim 2+ goals
51%
Bergheim 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

SV Schwarzach (draw refunded)
64%
Bergheim (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Schwarzach at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Schwarzach attack 1.89 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.32

Bergheim attack 1.57 + SV Schwarzach defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SV Schwarzach scores more
52%
level
20%
Bergheim scores more
28%

SV Schwarzach at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SV Schwarzach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: SV Schwarzach 2–5 Bergheim

Bergheim beat SV Schwarzach 5-2 in Landesliga - Salzburg on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schwarzach in Schwarzach.