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Bergheim vs SV Schwarzach — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Bergheim
Bergheim
FT
1 – 2
SV Schwarzach
SV Schwarzach
10/21/2022Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 12Sportplatz FC Bergheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bergheim46%
×Draw21%
SV Schwarzach33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bergheim
2.09
SV Schwarzach
1.75

Bergheim creates 19% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 28 away

creates per match

Bergheim
1.73
SV Schwarzach
1.07

allows per match

Bergheim
2.42
SV Schwarzach
2.46

finishing

Bergheim+0.00on par
SV Schwarzach+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bergheim ↓

SV Schwarzach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bergheim or draw
67%
Bergheim or SV Schwarzach
79%
Draw or SV Schwarzach
54%

Winning margin

Bergheim wins by 2+
26%
SV Schwarzach wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bergheim 1+ goals
88%
Bergheim 2+ goals
62%
Bergheim 3+ goals
34%
SV Schwarzach 1+ goals
83%
SV Schwarzach 2+ goals
52%
SV Schwarzach 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Bergheim (draw refunded)
58%
SV Schwarzach (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bergheim at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.42 · 40 matches

SV Schwarzach away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bergheim attack 1.73 + SV Schwarzach defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.09

SV Schwarzach attack 1.07 + Bergheim defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bergheim scores more
46%
level
21%
SV Schwarzach scores more
33%

Bergheim at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bergheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bergheim vs SV Schwarzach

SV Schwarzach beat Bergheim 2-1 in Landesliga - Salzburg on October 21, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz FC Bergheim in Bergheim.