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SV Sandhausen vs FC Wurzburger Kickers — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Wurzburger Kickers
FC Wurzburger Kickers
12/11/20162. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 16Hardtwaldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Sandhausen47%
×Draw25%
FC Wurzburger Kickers28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
1.59
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.18

SV Sandhausen creates 35% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 28 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
1.29
FC Wurzburger Kickers
0.93

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
1.43
FC Wurzburger Kickers
1.89

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

FC Wurzburger Kickers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
72%
SV Sandhausen or FC Wurzburger Kickers
75%
Draw or FC Wurzburger Kickers
53%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
24%
FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
80%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
47%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
21%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals
69%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals
33%
FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
62%
FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 84 matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.89 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.29 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 0.93 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
47%
level
25%
FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more
28%

SV Sandhausen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Sandhausen vs FC Wurzburger Kickers

SV Sandhausen and FC Wurzburger Kickers drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on December 11, 2016.

The match was played at Hardtwaldstadion in Sandhausen.