FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 SV Sandhausen

FC Wurzburger Kickers

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

SV Sandhausen

D. Hägele 88'

M. Lotrič 42'

D. Keita-Ruel 70', 18'

I. Paurević 54'

12/6/2020

2. Bundesliga · Round 10flyeralarm-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Wurzburger Kickers38%

×Draw26%

SV Sandhausen36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Wurzburger KickersExpected goals in this matchSV Sandhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.34

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.39

SV Sandhausen

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 80 away

1.04

creates per match

1.16

1.52

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.04

SV Sandhausen

1.16

allows per match

FC Wurzburger Kickers

1.52

SV Sandhausen

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Wurzburger Kickers+0.00on par

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Wurzburger Kickers ↓

SV Sandhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

FC Wurzburger Kickers or draw

64%

FC Wurzburger Kickers or SV Sandhausen

74%

Draw or SV Sandhausen

62%

Winning margin

FC Wurzburger Kickers wins by 2+

18%

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

FC Wurzburger Kickers 1+ goals

75%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 2+ goals

40%

FC Wurzburger Kickers 3+ goals

16%

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals

74%

SV Sandhausen 2+ goals

39%

SV Sandhausen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Wurzburger Kickers (draw refunded)

52%

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Wurzburger Kickers at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

SV Sandhausen away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.73 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Wurzburger Kickers attack 1.04 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.39

SV Sandhausen attack 1.16 + FC Wurzburger Kickers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FC Wurzburger Kickers scores more

38%

level

26%

SV Sandhausen scores more

36%

FC Wurzburger Kickers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Wurzburger Kickers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

D. Keita-Ruel

SV Sandhausen · F

8.9

Match Events

13'

18'

37'

42'

46'

I. Paurević← A. Zhirov

53'

Leroy Kwadwo

54'

I. Paurević↳ J. Biada

56'

Robin Scheu

65'

S. Sané← M. Lotrič

65'

R. Herrmann← L. Kwadwo

70'

D. Keita-Ruel↳ N. Nartey

72'

D. Contento← R. Scheu

72'

D. Linsmayer← N. Nartey

74'

Ewerton

80'

T. Kraulich← F. Flecker

81'

A. Bouhaddouz← J. Biada

84'

Martin FraislGoal cancelled

84'

A. Esswein← K. Behrens

88'

D. Hägele↳ R. Herrmann

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCSV

Overview

55%Possession45%

6Total Shots13

6Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots13

3On Target5

0Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box8

1Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

406Total Passes331

294Accurate Passes201

72%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 SV Sandhausen

SV Sandhausen beat FC Wurzburger Kickers 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on December 6, 2020.

Goals: D. Keita-Ruel (18', 70'), M. Lotrič (42'), I. Paurević (54'), D. Hägele (88').

FC Wurzburger Kickers controlled possession (55%) and registered 6 shots to 13.

The match was played at flyeralarm-Arena in Würzburg.

FC Wurzburger Kickers vs SV Sandhausen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: FC Wurzburger Kickers 2–3 SV Sandhausen