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Sv Morlautern vs Mülheim-Kärlich — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
FT
5 – 0
Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
3/24/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 3Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sv Morlautern71%
×Draw16%
Mülheim-Kärlich13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sv Morlautern
2.83
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.17

Sv Morlautern creates 142% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sv Morlautern
2.83
Mülheim-Kärlich
1.17

allows per match

Sv Morlautern
1.17
Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par
Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

Mülheim-Kärlich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw
87%
Sv Morlautern or Mülheim-Kärlich
84%
Draw or Mülheim-Kärlich
29%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
50%
Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
94%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
77%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
53%
Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
69%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
33%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
84%
Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Mülheim-Kärlich away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.83

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 1.17 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more
71%
level
16%
Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
13%

Sv Morlautern at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sv Morlautern vs Mülheim-Kärlich

Sv Morlautern beat Mülheim-Kärlich 5-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on March 24, 2023.

The match was played at Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz in Kaiserslautern.