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Mülheim-Kärlich vs Sv Morlautern — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Mülheim-Kärlich
Mülheim-Kärlich
FT
0 – 6
Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
5/5/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 9Kunstrasenplatz Mülheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mülheim-Kärlich10%
×Draw14%
Sv Morlautern76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mülheim-Kärlich
0.92
Sv Morlautern
2.83

Sv Morlautern creates 208% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
0.50
Sv Morlautern
2.83

allows per match

Mülheim-Kärlich
2.83
Sv Morlautern
1.33

finishing

Mülheim-Kärlich+0.00on par
Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mülheim-Kärlich ↓

Sv Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–210%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Mülheim-Kärlich or draw
24%
Mülheim-Kärlich or Sv Morlautern
86%
Draw or Sv Morlautern
90%

Winning margin

Mülheim-Kärlich wins by 2+
3%
Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Mülheim-Kärlich 1+ goals
60%
Mülheim-Kärlich 2+ goals
23%
Mülheim-Kärlich 3+ goals
7%
Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
94%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
77%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Mülheim-Kärlich (draw refunded)
11%
Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mülheim-Kärlich at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mülheim-Kärlich attack 0.50 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.92

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + Mülheim-Kärlich defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Mülheim-Kärlich scores more
10%
level
14%
Sv Morlautern scores more
76%

Sv Morlautern at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Mülheim-Kärlich 0–6 Sv Morlautern

Sv Morlautern beat Mülheim-Kärlich 6-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Mülheim in Mülheim-Kärlich.