Sv Morlautern 2–4 Kaiserslautern II: Result & Stats

Sv Morlautern

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Kaiserslautern II

11/5/2022

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sv Morlautern28%

×Draw19%

Kaiserslautern II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sv MorlauternExpected goals in this matchKaiserslautern II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

2.50

Sv Morlautern

1.81

Kaiserslautern II

2.50

Kaiserslautern II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 79 away

2.02

creates per match

2.51

2.48

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Sv Morlautern

2.02

Kaiserslautern II

2.51

allows per match

Sv Morlautern

2.48

Kaiserslautern II

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

Kaiserslautern II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw

47%

Sv Morlautern or Kaiserslautern II

81%

Draw or Kaiserslautern II

72%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+

14%

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals

84%

Sv Morlautern 2+ goals

54%

Sv Morlautern 3+ goals

27%

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals

92%

Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals

71%

Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)

35%

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Kaiserslautern II away — creates 2.51, concedes 1.61 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.02 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.51 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more

28%

level

19%

Kaiserslautern II scores more

53%

Kaiserslautern II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff