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Kaiserslautern II vs Sv Morlautern — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Kaiserslautern II
Kaiserslautern II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
8/6/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 3Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kaiserslautern II65%
×Draw18%
Sv Morlautern16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaiserslautern II
2.46
Sv Morlautern
1.16

Kaiserslautern II creates 112% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kaiserslautern II
2.64
Sv Morlautern
1.11

allows per match

Kaiserslautern II
1.21
Sv Morlautern
2.28

finishing

Kaiserslautern II+0.00on par
Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaiserslautern II ↓

Sv Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Kaiserslautern II or draw
84%
Kaiserslautern II or Sv Morlautern
82%
Draw or Sv Morlautern
35%

Winning margin

Kaiserslautern II wins by 2+
43%
Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kaiserslautern II 1+ goals
91%
Kaiserslautern II 2+ goals
70%
Kaiserslautern II 3+ goals
44%
Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
69%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
32%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kaiserslautern II (draw refunded)
80%
Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaiserslautern II at home — creates 2.64, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaiserslautern II attack 2.64 + Sv Morlautern defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.46

Sv Morlautern attack 1.11 + Kaiserslautern II defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kaiserslautern II scores more
65%
level
18%
Sv Morlautern scores more
16%

Kaiserslautern II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kaiserslautern II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Kaiserslautern II 2–0 Sv Morlautern

Kaiserslautern II beat Sv Morlautern 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on August 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Rote Teufel Platz 7 in Mehlingen.