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Sv Morlautern vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
FT
6 – 0
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
5/13/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 10Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sv Morlautern80%
×Draw12%
Ahrweiler BC8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sv Morlautern
3.33
Ahrweiler BC
1.00

Sv Morlautern creates 233% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sv Morlautern
2.83
Ahrweiler BC
0.83

allows per match

Sv Morlautern
1.17
Ahrweiler BC
3.83

finishing

Sv Morlautern+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sv Morlautern ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sv Morlautern or draw
92%
Sv Morlautern or Ahrweiler BC
88%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
20%

Winning margin

Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
62%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
96%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
84%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
63%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
63%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
26%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
91%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sv Morlautern at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.83, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + Ahrweiler BC defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.33

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.83 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sv Morlautern scores more
80%
level
12%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
8%

Sv Morlautern at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sv Morlautern vs Ahrweiler BC

Sv Morlautern beat Ahrweiler BC 6-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Morlautern Kunstrasenplatz in Kaiserslautern.