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Ahrweiler BC vs Sv Morlautern — Oberliga - Relegation Round 2022

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
0 – 0
Sv Morlautern
Sv Morlautern
4/1/2023Oberliga - Relegation RoundOberliga - Relegation Round · Rh/Pf/S - Relegation Round - 4Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ahrweiler BC19%
×Draw19%
Sv Morlautern63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
1.25
Sv Morlautern
2.42

Sv Morlautern creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.17
Sv Morlautern
2.83

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.00
Sv Morlautern
1.33

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
Sv Morlautern+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

Sv Morlautern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
37%
Ahrweiler BC or Sv Morlautern
81%
Draw or Sv Morlautern
81%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
7%
Sv Morlautern wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
71%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
36%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
13%
Sv Morlautern 1+ goals
91%
Sv Morlautern 2+ goals
69%
Sv Morlautern 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
23%
Sv Morlautern (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Sv Morlautern away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.17 + Sv Morlautern defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sv Morlautern attack 2.83 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
19%
level
19%
Sv Morlautern scores more
63%

Sv Morlautern at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sv Morlautern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Relegation Round: Ahrweiler BC 0–0 Sv Morlautern

Ahrweiler BC and Sv Morlautern drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Relegation Round on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.