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SV Mattersburg vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
8/4/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 2Pappelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Mattersburg22%
×Draw22%
Red Bull Salzburg57%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Mattersburg
1.13
Red Bull Salzburg
1.97

Red Bull Salzburg creates 74% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 133 away

creates per match

SV Mattersburg
1.25
Red Bull Salzburg
2.14

allows per match

SV Mattersburg
1.79
Red Bull Salzburg
1.00

finishing

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Mattersburg ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

SV Mattersburg or draw
43%
SV Mattersburg or Red Bull Salzburg
78%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
78%

Winning margin

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
8%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
68%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
31%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
11%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
86%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
58%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
27%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Mattersburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Mattersburg attack 1.25 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.14 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SV Mattersburg scores more
22%
level
22%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
57%

Red Bull Salzburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: SV Mattersburg 0–2 Red Bull Salzburg

Red Bull Salzburg beat SV Mattersburg 2-0 in Bundesliga on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Pappelstadion in Mattersburg.