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Red Bull Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
11/4/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 13Red Bull Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg65%
×Draw19%
SV Mattersburg16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
2.24
SV Mattersburg
0.99

Red Bull Salzburg creates 126% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 31 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.58
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
0.86
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
84%
Red Bull Salzburg or SV Mattersburg
81%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
35%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
42%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
89%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
65%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
38%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
63%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
26%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
81%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.86 · 128 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.58 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.24

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
65%
level
19%
SV Mattersburg scores more
16%

Red Bull Salzburg at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Bull Salzburg vs SV Mattersburg

Red Bull Salzburg beat SV Mattersburg 2-1 in Bundesliga on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Salzburg.