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SV Mattersburg vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
9/16/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 7Pappelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Mattersburg28%
×Draw24%
Lask Linz47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Mattersburg
1.23
Lask Linz
1.66

Lask Linz creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 126 away

creates per match

SV Mattersburg
1.25
Lask Linz
1.52

allows per match

SV Mattersburg
1.79
Lask Linz
1.22

finishing

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par
Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Mattersburg ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SV Mattersburg or draw
53%
SV Mattersburg or Lask Linz
76%
Draw or Lask Linz
72%

Winning margin

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
12%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
71%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
35%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
13%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
81%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
49%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
37%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Mattersburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Mattersburg attack 1.25 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Mattersburg scores more
28%
level
24%
Lask Linz scores more
47%

Lask Linz at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Mattersburg vs Lask Linz

Lask Linz beat SV Mattersburg 3-1 in Bundesliga on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Pappelstadion in Mattersburg.