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Lask Linz vs SV Mattersburg — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
12/15/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 18TGW Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lask Linz54%
×Draw23%
SV Mattersburg23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.88
SV Mattersburg
1.15

Lask Linz creates 63% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.85
SV Mattersburg
1.13

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.17
SV Mattersburg
1.90

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

SV Mattersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
77%
Lask Linz or SV Mattersburg
77%
Draw or SV Mattersburg
46%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
31%
SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
85%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
56%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
29%
SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
68%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
32%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
70%
SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.17 · 126 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.85 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.88

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Lask Linz defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lask Linz scores more
54%
level
23%
SV Mattersburg scores more
23%

Lask Linz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Lask Linz 2–1 SV Mattersburg

Lask Linz beat SV Mattersburg 2-1 in Bundesliga on December 15, 2018.

The match was played at TGW Arena in Pasching.