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SV Mattersburg vs Austria Vienna — Bundesliga 2018

SV Mattersburg
SV Mattersburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
12/9/2018BundesligaBundesliga · Round 17Pappelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

SV Mattersburg32%
×Draw25%
Austria Vienna43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Mattersburg
1.31
Austria Vienna
1.56

Austria Vienna creates 19% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 132 away

creates per match

SV Mattersburg
1.25
Austria Vienna
1.33

allows per match

SV Mattersburg
1.79
Austria Vienna
1.36

finishing

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par
Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Mattersburg ↓

Austria Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SV Mattersburg or draw
57%
SV Mattersburg or Austria Vienna
75%
Draw or Austria Vienna
68%

Winning margin

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+
14%
Austria Vienna wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals
73%
SV Mattersburg 2+ goals
38%
SV Mattersburg 3+ goals
14%
Austria Vienna 1+ goals
79%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
46%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)
43%
Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Mattersburg at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.36 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Mattersburg attack 1.25 + Austria Vienna defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Austria Vienna attack 1.33 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Mattersburg scores more
32%
level
25%
Austria Vienna scores more
43%

Austria Vienna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Mattersburg vs Austria Vienna

SV Mattersburg beat Austria Vienna 2-1 in Bundesliga on December 9, 2018.

The match was played at Pappelstadion in Mattersburg.