Austria Vienna 1–0 SV Mattersburg: Result & Stats

Austria Vienna

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SV Mattersburg

7/4/2020

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 10Generali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Austria Vienna50%

×Draw24%

SV Mattersburg26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria ViennaExpected goals in this matchSV Mattersburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.19

Austria Vienna

1.75

SV Mattersburg

1.19

Austria Vienna creates 47% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 31 away

1.59

creates per match

1.13

1.25

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Austria Vienna

1.59

SV Mattersburg

1.13

allows per match

Austria Vienna

1.25

SV Mattersburg

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

SV Mattersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

SV Mattersburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw

74%

Austria Vienna or SV Mattersburg

76%

Draw or SV Mattersburg

50%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

27%

SV Mattersburg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

83%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

52%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

25%

SV Mattersburg 1+ goals

70%

SV Mattersburg 2+ goals

33%

SV Mattersburg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

66%

SV Mattersburg (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.25 · 129 matches

SV Mattersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.90 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.59 + SV Mattersburg defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.75

SV Mattersburg attack 1.13 + Austria Vienna defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Austria Vienna scores more

50%

level

24%

SV Mattersburg scores more

26%

Austria Vienna at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff