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SV Linx vs SGV Freiberg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SV Linx
SV Linx
CANC
13:30
SGV Freiberg
SGV Freiberg
4/17/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29Hans-Weber Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SV Linx15%
×Draw17%
SGV Freiberg68%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Linx
1.08
SGV Freiberg
2.52

SGV Freiberg creates 133% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

SV Linx
1.44
SGV Freiberg
3.08

allows per match

SV Linx
1.96
SGV Freiberg
0.73

finishing

SV Linx+0.00on par
SGV Freiberg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Linx ↓

SGV Freiberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

SV Linx or draw
32%
SV Linx or SGV Freiberg
83%
Draw or SGV Freiberg
85%

Winning margin

SV Linx wins by 2+
5%
SGV Freiberg wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

SV Linx 1+ goals
66%
SV Linx 2+ goals
29%
SV Linx 3+ goals
10%
SGV Freiberg 1+ goals
92%
SGV Freiberg 2+ goals
71%
SGV Freiberg 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

SV Linx (draw refunded)
18%
SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Linx at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

SGV Freiberg away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Linx attack 1.44 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.08

SGV Freiberg attack 3.08 + SV Linx defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

SV Linx scores more
15%
level
17%
SGV Freiberg scores more
68%

SGV Freiberg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SV Linx vs SGV Freiberg — Match Preview

SV Linx face SGV Freiberg on April 17, 2021 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SV Linx host SGV Freiberg at Hans-Weber Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.