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SGV Freiberg vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SGV Freiberg
SGV Freiberg
FT
7 – 0
SV Linx
SV Linx
9/26/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Wasen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SGV Freiberg73%
×Draw15%
SV Linx12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SGV Freiberg
2.86
SV Linx
1.10

SGV Freiberg creates 160% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

SGV Freiberg
3.12
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

SGV Freiberg
0.68
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

SGV Freiberg+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SGV Freiberg ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

SGV Freiberg or draw
88%
SGV Freiberg or SV Linx
85%
Draw or SV Linx
27%

Winning margin

SGV Freiberg wins by 2+
52%
SV Linx wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SGV Freiberg 1+ goals
94%
SGV Freiberg 2+ goals
77%
SGV Freiberg 3+ goals
53%
SV Linx 1+ goals
67%
SV Linx 2+ goals
30%
SV Linx 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SGV Freiberg (draw refunded)
86%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SGV Freiberg at home — creates 3.12, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SGV Freiberg attack 3.12 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.86

SV Linx attack 1.52 + SGV Freiberg defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

SGV Freiberg scores more
73%
level
15%
SV Linx scores more
12%

SGV Freiberg at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "SGV Freiberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: SGV Freiberg 7–0 SV Linx

SGV Freiberg beat SV Linx 7-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Wasen-Stadion in Freiberg.