Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SV Linx vs Göppinger SV — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SV Linx
SV Linx
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
2/26/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 22Hans-Weber Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SV Linx33%
×Draw23%
Göppinger SV44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Linx
1.46
Göppinger SV
1.73

Göppinger SV creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 76 away

creates per match

SV Linx
1.44
Göppinger SV
1.49

allows per match

SV Linx
1.96
Göppinger SV
1.47

finishing

SV Linx+0.00on par
Göppinger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Linx ↓

Göppinger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SV Linx or draw
56%
SV Linx or Göppinger SV
77%
Draw or Göppinger SV
67%

Winning margin

SV Linx wins by 2+
15%
Göppinger SV wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SV Linx 1+ goals
77%
SV Linx 2+ goals
43%
SV Linx 3+ goals
18%
Göppinger SV 1+ goals
82%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
52%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SV Linx (draw refunded)
43%
Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Linx at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Göppinger SV away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Linx attack 1.44 + Göppinger SV defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.46

Göppinger SV attack 1.49 + SV Linx defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SV Linx scores more
33%
level
23%
Göppinger SV scores more
44%

Göppinger SV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Linx vs Göppinger SV

Göppinger SV beat SV Linx 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Hans-Weber Stadion in Rheinau.