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Göppinger SV vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Göppinger SV
Göppinger SV
FT
1 – 1
SV Linx
SV Linx
10/20/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 3Stadion SV Göppingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Göppinger SV58%
×Draw20%
SV Linx22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göppinger SV
2.33
SV Linx
1.40

Göppinger SV creates 66% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 25 away

creates per match

Göppinger SV
2.05
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

Göppinger SV
1.27
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

Göppinger SV+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göppinger SV ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Göppinger SV or draw
78%
Göppinger SV or SV Linx
80%
Draw or SV Linx
42%

Winning margin

Göppinger SV wins by 2+
36%
SV Linx wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Göppinger SV 1+ goals
90%
Göppinger SV 2+ goals
67%
Göppinger SV 3+ goals
41%
SV Linx 1+ goals
75%
SV Linx 2+ goals
41%
SV Linx 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Göppinger SV (draw refunded)
72%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göppinger SV at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göppinger SV attack 2.05 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.33

SV Linx attack 1.52 + Göppinger SV defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Göppinger SV scores more
58%
level
20%
SV Linx scores more
22%

Göppinger SV at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Göppinger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göppinger SV vs SV Linx

Göppinger SV and SV Linx drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SV Göppingen in Göppingen.