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SV Linx vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

SV Linx
SV Linx
FT
1 – 1
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
9/15/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Hans-Weber Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

SV Linx39%
×Draw23%
Astoria Walldorf II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Linx
1.70
Astoria Walldorf II
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

creates per match

SV Linx
1.44
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

SV Linx
1.96
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

SV Linx+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Linx ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

SV Linx or draw
62%
SV Linx or Astoria Walldorf II
77%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
61%

Winning margin

SV Linx wins by 2+
20%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

SV Linx 1+ goals
82%
SV Linx 2+ goals
51%
SV Linx 3+ goals
24%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
81%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
49%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

SV Linx (draw refunded)
51%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Linx at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Linx attack 1.44 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.70

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + SV Linx defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SV Linx scores more
39%
level
23%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
38%

SV Linx at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SV Linx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: SV Linx 1–1 Astoria Walldorf II

SV Linx and Astoria Walldorf II drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Hans-Weber Stadion in Rheinau.