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Astoria Walldorf II vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 0
SV Linx
SV Linx
4/3/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Astoria Walldorf II41%
×Draw21%
SV Linx38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Astoria Walldorf II
2.11
SV Linx
2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Astoria Walldorf II
1.62
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

Astoria Walldorf II
2.54
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Astoria Walldorf II ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Astoria Walldorf II or draw
62%
Astoria Walldorf II or SV Linx
79%
Draw or SV Linx
59%

Winning margin

Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
23%
SV Linx wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
88%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
62%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
35%
SV Linx 1+ goals
87%
SV Linx 2+ goals
60%
SV Linx 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
52%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Astoria Walldorf II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 26 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.62 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.11

SV Linx attack 1.52 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Astoria Walldorf II scores more
41%
level
21%
SV Linx scores more
38%

Astoria Walldorf II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Astoria Walldorf II 3–5 SV Linx

SV Linx beat Astoria Walldorf II 5-3 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 3, 2022.

The match was played at Waldstadion in Walldorf.