Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SV Innsbruck vs Söll — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
FT
5 – 1
Söll
Söll
10/13/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 8Sportplatz Wiesengasse C

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

SV Innsbruck68%
×Draw16%
Söll16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Innsbruck
2.95
Söll
1.42

SV Innsbruck creates 108% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 17 away

creates per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Söll
0.94

allows per match

SV Innsbruck
1.90
Söll
4.00

finishing

SV Innsbruck+0.00on par
Söll+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Innsbruck ↓

Söll →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

SV Innsbruck or draw
84%
SV Innsbruck or Söll
84%
Draw or Söll
32%

Winning margin

SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
48%
Söll wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
95%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
79%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
55%
Söll 1+ goals
76%
Söll 2+ goals
41%
Söll 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
81%
Söll (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Innsbruck at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

Söll away — creates 0.94, concedes 4.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Innsbruck attack 1.90 + Söll defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.95

Söll attack 0.94 + SV Innsbruck defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

SV Innsbruck scores more
68%
level
16%
Söll scores more
16%

SV Innsbruck at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Tirol: SV Innsbruck 5–1 Söll

SV Innsbruck beat Söll 5-1 in Landesliga - Tirol on October 13, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Wiesengasse C in Innsbruck.