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Söll vs SV Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Söll
Söll
CANC
00:00
SV Innsbruck
SV Innsbruck
4/24/2020Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 21Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Söll27%
×Draw22%
SV Innsbruck51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Söll
1.38
SV Innsbruck
1.98

SV Innsbruck creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 27 away

creates per match

Söll
0.64
SV Innsbruck
1.70

allows per match

Söll
2.27
SV Innsbruck
2.11

finishing

Söll+0.00on par
SV Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Söll ↓

SV Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Söll or draw
49%
Söll or SV Innsbruck
78%
Draw or SV Innsbruck
73%

Winning margin

Söll wins by 2+
12%
SV Innsbruck wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Söll 1+ goals
75%
Söll 2+ goals
40%
Söll 3+ goals
16%
SV Innsbruck 1+ goals
86%
SV Innsbruck 2+ goals
59%
SV Innsbruck 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Söll (draw refunded)
34%
SV Innsbruck (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Söll at home — creates 0.64, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

SV Innsbruck away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Söll attack 0.64 + SV Innsbruck defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.38

SV Innsbruck attack 1.70 + Söll defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Söll scores more
27%
level
22%
SV Innsbruck scores more
51%

SV Innsbruck at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SV Innsbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Söll host SV Innsbruck

April 24, 2020: Söll take on SV Innsbruck in Landesliga - Tirol. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Söll host SV Innsbruck at Kunstrasen Salvenarena-Söll.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.