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SV Elversberg vs SC Paderborn 07 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
R. Adam 90'
L. Petkov 41', 28'
D. Mokwa Ntusu 17'
M. Rohr 4'
C. Brackelmann 65'
5/3/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32Waldstadion Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SV Elversberg43%
×Draw24%
SC Paderborn 0733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.62
SC Paderborn 07
1.40

SV Elversberg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 119 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
SC Paderborn 07
1.48

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
SC Paderborn 07
1.34

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
67%
SV Elversberg or SC Paderborn 07
76%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
57%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
22%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
80%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
48%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
22%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
75%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
41%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
56%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.34 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.62

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
43%
level
24%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
33%

SV Elversberg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
L. PetkovSV ElversbergSV Elversberg · M
10.0

Match Events

4'
M. Rohr↳ L. Petkov
17'
D. Mokwa Ntusu↳ L. Gunther
28'
L. Petkov↳ L. Poreba
38'
Jan Gyamerah
41'
L. Petkov↳ T. Zimmerschied
43'
Immanuel Pherai
46'
S. Tigges← F. Gotze
46'
K. Okpala← R. Muller
47'
Tjark Lasse Scheller
62'
N. Mickelson← L. Gunther
62'
N. Batzner← M. Baur
64'
Amara Condé
65'
C. Brackelmann↳ N. Batzner
68'
S. Michel← S. Marino
73'
F. Schmahl← I. Pherai
73'
J. Malanga← L. Petkov
74'
Kennedy Okpala
78'
Steffen Tigges
81'
N. Mohr← T. Scheller
85'
L. Schnellbacher← D. Mokwa Ntusu
85'
R. Adam← T. Zimmerschied
90+5'
Steffen Tigges
90'
Nick Bätzner
90+5'
Steffen Tigges
90'
R. Adam↳ L. Schnellbacher

Possession

42%SV

Shots

8SV

Pass accuracy

49%SV

Statistics

SVSC
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots11
2.72Expected Goals (xG)1.10
2Corners6
11Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots11
5On Target6
2Off Target4
1Blocked1
8Inside Box7
0Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
326Total Passes435
240Accurate Passes340
74%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
4Saves0
-1.72Goals Prevented-1.72
Discipline
11Fouls15
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Elversberg 5–1 SC Paderborn 07

SV Elversberg beat SC Paderborn 07 5-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 3, 2026.

Goals: M. Rohr (4'), D. Mokwa Ntusu (17'), L. Petkov (28', 41'), C. Brackelmann (65'), R. Adam (90').

SC Paderborn 07 controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 8.

The match was played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.