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SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
4/26/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 31Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SC Paderborn 0743%
×Draw23%
SV Elversberg33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.73
SV Elversberg
1.49

SC Paderborn 07 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 51 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.04
SV Elversberg
1.57

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.41
SV Elversberg
1.41

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
67%
SC Paderborn 07 or SV Elversberg
77%
Draw or SV Elversberg
57%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
23%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
82%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
52%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
25%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
77%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
44%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
57%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
43%
level
23%
SV Elversberg scores more
33%

SC Paderborn 07 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SC Paderborn 07 1–1 SV Elversberg

SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg drew 1-1 in 2. Bundesliga on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.