Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
8/5/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 2Stadion Ludwigspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SV Elversberg51%
×Draw24%
Hansa Rostock25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.73
Hansa Rostock
1.13

SV Elversberg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
Hansa Rostock
1.57

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
75%
SV Elversberg or Hansa Rostock
76%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
49%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
28%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
82%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
52%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
25%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
68%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
31%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
67%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
51%
level
24%
Hansa Rostock scores more
25%

SV Elversberg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SV Elversberg 1–2 Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat SV Elversberg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Ludwigspark in Saarbrücken.