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Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
1/27/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hansa Rostock31%
×Draw25%
SV Elversberg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hansa Rostock
1.25
SV Elversberg
1.54

SV Elversberg creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Hansa Rostock
1.08
SV Elversberg
1.57

allows per match

Hansa Rostock
1.51
SV Elversberg
1.41

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw
56%
Hansa Rostock or SV Elversberg
75%
Draw or SV Elversberg
69%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
13%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
71%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
36%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
13%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
79%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
45%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
41%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 51 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.08 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more
31%
level
25%
SV Elversberg scores more
44%

SV Elversberg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: Hansa Rostock 2–1 SV Elversberg

Hansa Rostock beat SV Elversberg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.