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SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
A. Conde 76'
L. Petkov 69', 38'
C. Lannert 84'
3/21/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 27Waldstadion Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SV Elversberg54%
×Draw23%
Arminia Bielefeld23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.81
Arminia Bielefeld
1.09

SV Elversberg creates 66% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.83
Arminia Bielefeld
1.06

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.13
Arminia Bielefeld
1.78

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.27scores more
Arminia Bielefeld+0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

Arminia Bielefeld →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
77%
SV Elversberg or Arminia Bielefeld
77%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld
46%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
30%
Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
84%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
54%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
27%
Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
66%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
30%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
70%
Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.13 · 10 matches

Arminia Bielefeld away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.78 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.83 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.06 + SV Elversberg defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
54%
level
23%
Arminia Bielefeld scores more
23%

SV Elversberg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
A. CondeSV ElversbergSV Elversberg · M
9.6

Match Events

8'
A. Conde← B. Conte
38'
L. Petkov↳ L. Schnellbacher
46'
R. Uldrikis← J. Grodowski
46'
J. Rochelt← N. Sarenren Bazee
51'
Marvin Mehlem
62'
N. Mickelson← L. Gunther
63'
D. Mokwa Ntusu← L. Schnellbacher
69'
L. Petkov↳ J. Gyamerah
74'
A. Sicker← T. Momuluh
74'
C. Lannert← B. Boakye
76'
A. Conde↳ T. Zimmerschied
81'
R. Knoche← T. Handwerker
82'
F. Schmahl← L. Pinckert
82'
F. Le Joncour← I. Pherai
84'
C. Lannert↳ S. Russo

Possession

58%SV

Shots

28SV

Pass accuracy

52%SV

Statistics

SVArminia
Overview
58%Possession42%
28Total Shots4
3.31Expected Goals (xG)0.44
9Corners1
7Fouls7
Shots
28Total Shots4
10On Target2
11Off Target2
7Blocked0
18Inside Box4
10Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
447Total Passes333
380Accurate Passes256
85%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
-1.28Goals Prevented-1.28
Discipline
7Fouls7
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs Arminia Bielefeld

SV Elversberg beat Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 in 2. Bundesliga on March 21, 2026.

Goals: L. Petkov (38', 69'), A. Conde (76'), C. Lannert (84').

SV Elversberg controlled possession (58%) and registered 28 shots to 4.

The match was played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.