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Arminia Bielefeld vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
F. Le Joncour 28' (OG)
J. Grodowski 17'
10/25/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 10SchücoArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Arminia Bielefeld51%
×Draw24%
SV Elversberg25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arminia Bielefeld
1.74
SV Elversberg
1.16

Arminia Bielefeld creates 50% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Arminia Bielefeld
2.14
SV Elversberg
1.47

allows per match

Arminia Bielefeld
0.85
SV Elversberg
1.33

finishing

Arminia Bielefeld+0.13scores more
SV Elversberg-0.09on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Bielefeld ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Arminia Bielefeld or draw
75%
Arminia Bielefeld or SV Elversberg
76%
Draw or SV Elversberg
49%

Winning margin

Arminia Bielefeld wins by 2+
28%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arminia Bielefeld 1+ goals
82%
Arminia Bielefeld 2+ goals
52%
Arminia Bielefeld 3+ goals
25%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
69%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
32%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arminia Bielefeld (draw refunded)
67%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Bielefeld at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.33 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Bielefeld attack 2.14 + SV Elversberg defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

SV Elversberg attack 1.47 + Arminia Bielefeld defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arminia Bielefeld scores more
51%
level
24%
SV Elversberg scores more
25%

Arminia Bielefeld at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Arminia Bielefeld will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
T. HandwerkerArminia BielefeldArminia Bielefeld · D
8.2

Match Events

17'
J. Grodowski↳ T. Momuluh
22'
Frederik Schmahl
28'
F. Le JoncourOwn goal
45+4'
Benjamin Boakye
59'
N. Mickelson← L. Gunther
59'
J. Malanga← A. Conde
66'
F. Hagmann← J. Grodowski
66'
I. Young← T. Momuluh
68'
Joel Felix
72'
O. Stange← L. Petkov
72'
J. Ceka← T. Zimmerschied
74'
Maximilian Rohr
79'
L. Schnellbacher← Y. Ebnoutalib
83'
A. Sicker← J. Felix
83'
S. Schreck← B. Boakye
86'
J. Kania← N. Sarenren Bazee
90+2'
Julian KaniaGoal cancelled

Possession

31%Arminia

Shots

10Arminia

Pass accuracy

45%Arminia

Statistics

ArminiaSV
Overview
31%Possession69%
10Total Shots16
3Corners6
13Fouls12
Shots
10Total Shots16
2On Target2
4Off Target5
4Blocked9
9Inside Box9
1Outside Box7
Passing
31%Possession69%
249Total Passes588
174Accurate Passes513
70%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Arminia Bielefeld vs SV Elversberg

Arminia Bielefeld beat SV Elversberg 2-0 in 2. Bundesliga on October 25, 2025.

Goals: J. Grodowski (17'), F. Le Joncour (28' o.g.).

SV Elversberg controlled possession (69%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at SchücoArena in Bielefeld.