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SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
12/6/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 15URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

SV Elversberg49%
×Draw23%
1. FC Nürnberg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Elversberg
1.84
1. FC Nürnberg
1.34

SV Elversberg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 121 away

creates per match

SV Elversberg
1.90
1. FC Nürnberg
1.38

allows per match

SV Elversberg
1.31
1. FC Nürnberg
1.79

finishing

SV Elversberg+0.00on par
1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Elversberg ↓

1. FC Nürnberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

SV Elversberg or draw
72%
SV Elversberg or 1. FC Nürnberg
77%
Draw or 1. FC Nürnberg
51%

Winning margin

SV Elversberg wins by 2+
27%
1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

SV Elversberg 1+ goals
84%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
55%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
28%
1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
74%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
39%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
64%
1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Elversberg at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

1. FC Nürnberg away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Elversberg attack 1.90 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.84

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.38 + SV Elversberg defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SV Elversberg scores more
49%
level
23%
1. FC Nürnberg scores more
28%

SV Elversberg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg

SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on December 6, 2024.

The match was played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg.