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1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

1. FC Nürnberg
1. FC Nürnberg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SV Elversberg
SV Elversberg
1/17/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Max-Morlock-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

1. FC Nürnberg35%
×Draw25%
SV Elversberg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
SV Elversberg
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 51 away

creates per match

1. FC Nürnberg
1.35
SV Elversberg
1.57

allows per match

1. FC Nürnberg
1.38
SV Elversberg
1.41

finishing

1. FC Nürnberg+0.00on par
SV Elversberg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. FC Nürnberg ↓

SV Elversberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

1. FC Nürnberg or draw
60%
1. FC Nürnberg or SV Elversberg
75%
Draw or SV Elversberg
65%

Winning margin

1. FC Nürnberg wins by 2+
16%
SV Elversberg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

1. FC Nürnberg 1+ goals
75%
1. FC Nürnberg 2+ goals
40%
1. FC Nürnberg 3+ goals
16%
SV Elversberg 1+ goals
77%
SV Elversberg 2+ goals
43%
SV Elversberg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

1. FC Nürnberg (draw refunded)
47%
SV Elversberg (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. FC Nürnberg at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 121 matches

SV Elversberg away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.35 + SV Elversberg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

SV Elversberg attack 1.57 + 1. FC Nürnberg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

1. FC Nürnberg scores more
35%
level
25%
SV Elversberg scores more
40%

SV Elversberg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SV Elversberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg

1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Elversberg 3-2 in 2. Bundesliga on January 17, 2026.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Stadion in Nuremberg.